What a difference the spin makes!

Seeing the two headlines above, readers might be forgiven for thinking that The Herald and sister paper The National were referring to two different polls. But no! Both are referring to the same new YouGov survey. The contrast nicely illustrates how selectivity and emphasis can dramatically affect the mediated message. One says “SNP vote falls…” while the other says “SNP ahead…”. Both statements are true. But the sense conveyed by each is markedly different.

YouGov

Both articles offer analysis which focuses on what these polling figures might mean for the outcome of the May 2026 Scottish general election. Having skimmed the below-the line comments on both pieces, it appears that those commenting are likewise primarily concerned with the implications for the election, with most cheering for their own ‘team’.

Looking at it from the perspective of a lifelong Scottish nationalist, I find nothing very surprising in this poll. The picture remains unchanged. The poll indicates a nominally pro-independence parliament with the SNP still in government and still reliant on support from the Scottish Green Party. Whether this is seen as a good or a bad thing by ‘independistas’ depends largely on how well each understands what they are endorsing when they vote for the SNP. Those who see Swinney’s ‘strategy’ for what it is are likely to be very worried. The rest will be content and complacent in the comfort of their ignorance.

The main change in this poll is that Reform UK has moved up to second place, behind the SNP, pushing British Labour in Scotland (BLiS) into third place on both the constituency and the regional (list) ballots. The seat projection from PollCheck, which takes into account the latest YouGov poll, is as follows:

PollCheck

This wee surge for Reform UK contradicts recent speculation that the Farage bubble may have burst. His party continues to benefit from the carefully cultivated image of a radical disruptor, mopping up the votes of the alienated and disaffected and seizing media attention with their antics. Which is why I look at this YouGov poll and immediately wonder not what it means in terms of parliamentary arithmetic, but what it implies for the election campaign—particularly for the SNP.

Reform UK is not yet a threat to the SNP’s position as the largest party. It seems unlikely that they will become a direct and significant threat. It does, however, look increasingly unlikely that Swinney will get the overall SNP majority he has demanded as a condition for doing something on the constitutional issue. (What he proposes to do is dreadful, but that is another matter.)

If Reform UK becomes the official opposition in the Scottish Parliament, as this poll suggests, this might be advantageous to an SNP administration in that it means the British parties will be split as never before. At present, the four British parties have a total of 55 seats. The seat projection above gives them 61 seats. That increase is worrying in itself. But where the 55 worked together as a combined anti-independence force, the 61 would be divided into two groups. In the first group would be the 23 Reform UK MSPs, and in the second would be the other British MSPs who will not work with Reform UK. Or at least, will not want to be seen working with them. The SNP will be up against a much less coordinated opposition. Which might be helpful.

I said above that I was interested in what this YouGov poll implies for the SNP’s campaign. In that regard, I was struck by the comments from Keith Brown, and the fact that he was so solely focused on Keir Starmer.

The poll shows that momentum is with the SNP as the only party which offers trusted leadership and puts their priorities first while Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is distracted by a bitter civil war.

Under John Swinney’s leadership our NHS has started to turn a corner and Scots continue to receive the best cost of living support in the UK – that’s what the relentless focus of John Swinney on the priorities of the people of Scotland brings.

Anas Sarwar bent over backwards to defend every disastrous decision Keir Starmer made – what you see with the London boss is exactly what you get with the branch manager.

I’ll do Keith the favour of glossing over the bit where Keith claims that “momentum is with the SNP”. What caught my attention was the extent to which he was fixated on Keir Starmer—as if Starmer was the man to beat even though he is not standing in this election.

It’s easy to understand why Keith would ignore nonentity Anas Sarwar in favour of Starmer. What is difficult to comprehend is why the SNP depute leader should be targeting British Labour and the head of the UK government. British Labour in Scotland has become electorally insignificant, and this is a Scottish general election.

Keith Brown’s comments seem to have no bearing on or connection with the subject at issue. What the hell does Starmer have to do with it!? The SNP is 14 points down on the 2021 constituency vote and 11 points on the regional vote. I’ll guarantee no more than a vanishingly small number of those lost votes have gone to BLiS. A substantial part of it has, however, gone to Reform UK. In this election campaign, Reform UK is the one to beat.

What the poll suggests to me is that the SNP needs to rethink its election campaign. It is Reform UK they have to compete with. Much the same can be said for the other Scottish parties. Reform UK is picking up the bulk of the voters who have turned away from the other parties. They are doing this, not by expounding worthy principles or espousing attractive policies, but by coming garbed in the raiment of the iconoclast. Farage’s success derives from his ability to grab the headlines with talk of tearing down the new and going back to the old. Reform UK’s winning message is that everything is shite now. Everything was great back then. So, let’s flush the shite and return things to ‘normal’.

Reform UK is the disruptor, hoovering up the votes of the alienated and disaffected by being the brash mavericks promising to wipe the slate clean and give everybody a fresh start. You won’t beat Reform UK by pointing out that they are destructive when being destructive is the very thing that people are looking for. You won’t beat the disruptor by being cautious and conciliatory. You have to be the better disruptor. Where they are about destruction, you must be about reconstruction. Where they are brash, you must be bold. Where they have sentimentality and nostalgia, you must have imagination and novel ideas.

The SNP and the other nominally pro-independence parties need to ask themselves why Farage’s brand of British nationalism can flourish in Scotland where their brand of Scottish nationalism fails to inspire.