Twin flukes
Once again, the only thing that is “crystal clear” from Swinney’s latest media event is the fact that he has nothing beyond a Section 30 request. But only if the fluke result in 2011 repeats itself. In fact, he hasn’t even started to think about what “tactics” he might deploy if the fluke result doesn’t repeat itself or if Starmer returns his begging letter unopened.
Both of these things are near certainties. Swinney’s ‘plan’ is wholly dependent on two things, which are both so unlikely that they make the ‘plan’ more like a mug’s gamble than a realistic, considered political strategy.
If we had any decent journalists, they would have pressed Swinney on why he so assiduously avoids saying ‘section 30’ when he can’t possibly be referring to anything else.
“And I’m simply saying to people in Scotland, if we want to make this happen, let’s look at where the precedent lies. The precedent lies in 2011, where the SNP got a majority.”
Of course, he could hardly give an honest answer and tell people that he’s avoiding using the term because he has been advised that it is toxic to a large part of the vote he is desperately trying to keep. He talks of “crystal” clarity while being as vague as possible. That is not the behaviour of an honest politician.
Our intrepid reporter, did he or she exist, might have asked at least one further question. If he is aware of a way to have a referendum which isn’t critically dependent on the twin flukes of an SNP majority and a yes from Starmer, why is he not deploying those “tactics” now rather than relying on not one, but two near-miraculous developments?
Swinney’s “strategy” is entirely about clinging to that part of the pro-independence vote which has not yet given up on the SNP. He is effectively ‘blackmailing’ those voters by telling them that anything other than a vote for the SNP is not an independence vote.
Suppose there were a party which was genuinely worthy of the title ‘party of independence’. A party with a real Manifesto for Independence. A party with a clear and credible strategy for securing a proper constitutional referendum. Do you think his ‘strategy’ would be any different?
It wouldn’t be different at all. He would still be telling us that a vote for this genuine ‘party of independence’ was not a vote for independence because that would be his only hope of keeping the votes which would otherwise go to the imagined party.
That’s Swinney’s Swindle!
I received yet another email asking for donations to help the SNP. Swinney's message includes the following statement:-
"This May’s Scottish election matters. Not just for the next five years - but for whether Scotland can take the next steps towards a fairer, more prosperous independent future, made in Scotland."
I cancelled my membership last year, and will not give a single penny to them until they provide the country with a feasible strategy for independence. Section 30 is not a feasible strategy and never was. A change of strategy and a change of leader is desperately required here. I am not wearing my happy face right now :(
There are a few choice quotes in the waffling and rambling response from the First Minister to which I offer my own interpretation.
"To become independent, we need a referendum that will be recognised by the international community ..."
Most countries have got their own issues to deal with so whether or not we have a referendum is of passing interest. Honest John is referring solely to the British state and Westminster when he says "international community".
"... let's look at where the precedent lies. The precedent lies in 2011, where the SNP got a majority."
As far as I am aware no Prime Minister have ever stated that the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary election outcome represented a precedent that the Westminster Parliament and government of the day would follow in the future. When the (would be vote) Swindler talks about "precedent" he really means "Westminster sanction".
"There's various tactics that I could deploy and which I will think about and consider and deploy when the time is right."
The SNP leader employ's the coloniser's own tried and tested technique of delay, deferral and denial. The inclusion of "when the time is right" is the formula for never ending procrastination on the issue to camouflage the non-existent secret plan one more time.
“That's the outrage that you should all be livid about. That's my advice to you."
I reckon that the fury that many in the independence movement are feeling is the abominable and shameless deceit that the First Minister is attempting to perpetrate on the Scottish people in the upcoming election.
And my advice to him?
Take a Flyer!