Time is running out

Will 2026 be another missed opportunity?

There is, I think, general agreement across the independence movement that the 2026 Scottish general election must be used as a device to reset/restart the fight to restore Scotland’s independence. It was switched off by Nicola Sturgeon ten years ago. She just ‘forgot’ to turn it back on again. The 2026 election provides a chance to do this. But it looks very much as if this chance will be squandered, as so many were before.

For all of those ten years I have been saying that the constitutional issue needs to be reframed and the campaign re-thought. For more than half that time I have been urging that we all accept some fundamental facts about Scotland’s predicament, and consider ways the situation might be satisfactorily resolved on the basis of this factual assessment of where Scotland stands now. Facts such as:

• There is no route to independence through the legal and constitutional framework which has evolved under the influence of the British state’s imperative to preserve and protect the Union.

• A route to independence can only lie in the space outside the strictures of the British legal and constitutional framework but within the scope of international laws and conventions.

• There is no route to independence which does not pass through a point at which there is inevitably acrimonious confrontation with the British state.

• There is no route to independence which will not be declared ‘illegal’ by the British state.

• The people of Scotland are sovereign. We are the ultimate political authority in Scotland, and our mandate is the sole source of legitimate political power.

• The Scottish Parliament is the national parliament of Scotland. It is the only parliament that holds a mandate from the sovereign people of Scotland.

• The Scottish Parliament is the ancient parliament of Scotland stolen from us in 1707 and returned to us in 1999 - in chains! The chains of devolution must be removed if the Scottish Parliament is to serve the people of Scotland rather than the ruling elites of England-as-Britain.

• The 2014 referendum was a sham which would not have led to independence even if the Yes side had won. The Section 30 process is a ruse to give the appearance of a means of exercising our right of self-determination while ensuring that the final word belongs to the British state.

• The fight to restore Scotland’s independence involves two separate but related battles. The battle to secure the means to exercise our right of self-determination must come first. Only then can we engage in the battle to restore independence. Only then will we have the appropriate weapon - a proper constitutional referendum.

• Responsibility for ensuring the people of Scotland can fully and properly exercise our right of self-determination lies entirely with the Scottish Government.

• The process by which Scotland’s independence is restored must involve a proper constitutional referendum under the auspices of the Scottish Parliament and free of any direct interference by the British state. This referendum must be entirely made and managed in Scotland and must be determinative and self-executing. It must produce a decision and not merely a result. It must be conclusive.

• The constitutional issue hinges on the question of the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament to authorise a proper constitutional referendum which stands as the formal exercise by the people of Scotland of the right of self-determination guaranteed by the United Nations as a human right.

• The only way the Scottish Parliament can acquire the legislative competence to authorise a proper constitutional referendum is by taking it in defiance of the British state.

• Legal challenges cannot and should not be avoided. We must be prepared to meet and defeat legal challenges. But we should as far as possible, contrive to determine the terms of these legal contests. We should pick our fights wisely.

• The safest ground on which to fight legal challenges is demand for and/or defence of human rights - such as the right of self-determination. We should therefore contrive to make the constitutional issue a human rights issue by focusing on the matter of removing constraints on the full and proper exercise of our right of self-determination.

• The 2026 Scottish Parliament provides the ideal opportunity to reboot the independence campaign as a human rights issue and initiate the process by which independence will be restored.

• Every opportunity such as is provided by the 2026 election must be treated as the final opportunity to progress Scotland’s cause.

• No political party in Scotland is currently proposing to exploit the 2026 election for the purpose of progressing Scotland’s cause. They are all interested only in electoral success and the rewards this entails.

• It will soon be too late to have the nominally pro-independence parties refocus on the constitutional issue rather than partisan advantage and personal ambition.

• Forcing the nominally pro-independence parties to refocus on the constitutional issue will require a combined effort by the mass of the independence movement.

• The independence movement is too divided and distracted to make this effort.

• Time is running out!

The nominally pro-independence parties will shortly be finalising their manifestos for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. They may not be published just yet. But once the party leaderships have decided on the content of the manifesto, this is unlikely to change before publication. The speeches will all have been drafted for the party conferences taking place in September and October.

The SNP is not the only nominally pro-independence party. But it is unquestionably the most important one. There is no way any effort to seize the opportunity of the 2026 election can succeed unless the SNP is part of it. This remains true even if - as some want but no authoritative source forecasts - the SNP is very severely punished by the electorate. It remains true because no matter how many seats the SNP loses, its remaining votes will be essential to any moves to progress Scotland’s cause. This is just another one of those facts about our predicament.

We are stuck with the SNP even though the SNP has been taken by its leaders in a direction which is wrong in every sense of the term. If this is not rectified, the 2026 election will be another squandered opportunity. Possibly, the last one.

There is the faint hope of this being achieved. We have seen the promise of a revolt by the SNP membership many times before. Our hopes have been dashed on every occasion. This time may well be different. The revolt against John Swinney’s abominable ‘independence strategy’ is gathering strength. Unfortunately, it’s not quite the revolt that we might have hoped for. But if it manages to break the leadership’s stranglehold on policy debate and formulation, that could lead to better things. It should have been a revolt in favour of the Newington Resolution. But this was a bit too radical for SNP branches. They are giving their support to a resolution that is better than Swinney’s - but still not strong enough.

Did I mention that time is short? If the internal revolt at the SNP conference in October (11th to 13th) fails, then all is lost. Nothing being done or being proposed by the other nominally pro-independence parties will make any difference. They spin fantasies for electioneering purposes. But the best information we have is polling results and they show these other parties barely registering, if at all. Even if that changes between now and next May, it is not going to change an outcome which leaves the SNP in a dominant position and critical to any effort to progress Scotland’s cause.

The non-SNP part of the independence movement must support the SNP ‘rebels’. (Although it’s a sad day when SNP members can be labelled ‘rebels’ on account of their commitment to the cause of restoring Scotland’s independence.)

Although the ‘rebel’ resolution bears no relation to #ScottishUDI (as the Newington Resolution does) signing the Manifesto for Independence Petition is an effective way of demonstrating support for the ‘rebels’ in that it indicates huge dissatisfaction with the SNP leadership’s current offering. And, not at all incidentally, dissatisfaction with the offerings of the other nominally pro-independence parties as well. Scotland’s cause demands something far bolder and more radical that anything they are proposing.

As things stand, there is nothing you can do for Scotland’s cause that is more important than the Manifesto for Independence Petition. The reasons for this should be obvious. But the level of support to date suggests that few understand these reasons. Which is my failure. But I am genuinely at a loss as to how to make people listen, far less grasp the reasoning behind the #ScottishUDI plan - in which the Manifesto for Independence plays a critical role.

I shall persist, however, in the faint hope of getting the message across in the few weeks that remain. If, however, the SNP ‘rebels’ fail in October that will be the end for me. If the opportunity offered by the 2026 election is squandered - which looks highly likely - there will be no way for Scotland’s cause to make any progress before the next Scottish general election in 2031. Who knows what Scotland’s circumstances will be by then. We can be quite sure they will be no more favourable for Scotland’s cause.

If I survive, I’ll be 80 years old by the time the next but one Scottish Parliament election comes around. I struggle at times now. I doubt if I’ll have the heart for active campaigning. 2031 will mark 20 years since I started giving all my time to the campaign. I’m tired.

Time is running out in many ways.