The Farage factor

A couple of interesting points arise from today’s edition of A Proud Malcontent. Probably more than a couple. But there are two that I want to mention here.

Stephen Duncan’s usual forensic examination of the AMS (additional member system) electoral system used in Scottish general elections revealed that Reform UK is likely to have a major impact on the 2026 election. Stephen was looking at just how easy it is to win a seat in the regional ballot. There is a widely held assumption that the informal threshold for being awarded a list seat is around 6%. Stephen's presentation indicated that this does turn out to be generally true. But it is very far from necessarily true.

To illustrate the variability of this informal 6% threshold, Stephen worked his statistical magic to see what vote share would be required to win a list seat in 2026, taking the Farage factor into consideration. He included Referendum in his calculation awarding them a notional vote share based on recent polling. The result was that the vote share required shot up to over 8%.

When you think about it, this is a fairly obvious phenomenon. Stephen explained it in terms of market forces. With Reform UK participating in the election the ‘demand’ for seats increased. So, the ‘price’ went up as a corollary. Makes sense!

What immediately struck me about this was that it particularly impacted Alba Party. (Also, other nominally pro-independence parties. But their numbers in polls are so low they can safely be discounted.)

Alba Party’s entire election strategy is founded on winning list seats by taking regional ballot votes from the SNP. If winning those seats becomes more difficult, Alba’s electoral hopes are reduced accordingly. In Stephen Duncan’s illustration, the ‘cost’ of a seat has increased by a third. It follows that it is that much more difficult for Alba to take a seat.

Here’s the thing! The arithmetical rationale of Alba Party’s election strategy is calculated on the basis of the numbers as they were prior to the rise of Reform UK. Bearing in mind that the difference might be 33%, one would suppose that a rethink was required. But there has been no indication whatever that Kenny MacAskill has taken account of the Farage factor.

According to the polls — the best information we have — Alba Party’s chances of taking list seats were already low. If the ‘price’ of a seat has increased by a third, then it means their strategy surely slips into the realm of wishful thinking. It is perplexing, therefore, that there has been no adjustment to that strategy

It also occurred to me that what Scotland’s cause desperately needs is a very much more radical pro-independence party. To my mind, Reform UK’s success derives almost entirely from them being the disruptor in the system. At a time of political and economic strife, the simplisms of populist political rhetoric are powerfully appealing to a certain part of the population. Reform UK’s popularity is based on them making a big show of being against the same things as people who are dissatisfied with the way things are. It is the ideology of blame with the supposed solution being the eradication of the thing being blamed.

It is, however, entirely possible to be a disruptor without resorting to the stereotyping and othering of Nigel Farage’s inane but superficially appealing rhetoric. I envisage a pro-independence party with an approach to the constitutional that is so much more radical than what is currently on offer, it takes on the role of disruptor. A party which is in direct competition with Reform UK for the ‘angry vote’, but without resorting to their tactics.

I have long maintained that Alba Party missed a wonderful opportunity when it was launched a few months before the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. The party failed abysmally to carve out its own niche in Scotland’s politics. It failed utterly to create for itself an identity that was distinct from the SNP. The party’s leadership did not recognise the unique advantage of being a fringe party - you get to say things the established parties can’t.

Alba Party could have adopted the approach to the constitutional issue outlined in the #ScottishUDI plan. Instead, the party leadership decided to make it an alternative to the SNP which was distinguishable only in that it was willing to criticise the SNP. It has never been a distinct party so much as a rebel faction which has calved from the ‘mother party’, bringing a lot of baggage with it.

The disruptor course is still open to Alba Party. They could quite easily say that the Farage factor has forced them to rethink their approach to the constitutional issue. They could embrace #ScottishUDI and adopt the Manifesto for Independence and become the new party of independence. It’s all there for the taking. But I fear Kenny MacAskill is far too timid for such a move. Alex Salmond might have been up for it. But not his successor. He would have to go, I’m sorry to say.

Then things took a strange turn. As I was talking about a way forward for Scotland’s cause and setting out how Alba Party could play a major role, I was led to consider what would be required if Alba stuck with its current failing election strategy. I had not intended to speak of New Scotland Party (NSP). But I found myself doing so anyway as I followed the logic of my own argument. If an existing party won’t take on the role of disruptor, a new party must step into the breach. A party such as NSP.

Let me be quite clear! I have no desire to lead this disruptor party. I’m approaching 75 years of age, I’m tired and downhearted, and I am most certainly not temperamentally suited to the role. I would much prefer that Alba Party remade itself as the radical independence party we need. I would be more than content to continue being the proud malcontent commenting and criticising from the sidelines.

But if nobody else will take on the job, am I somehow obliged to do so? Do I have a moral duty to Scotland’s cause sufficient to compel me to relaunch New Scotland Party and have it participate in the 2026 election? I repeat, I really, really don’t want this. But it must be done. There is no way to look realistically at Scotland’s situation and fail to conclude that a radical pro-independence party is essential if the 2026 election is to be the democratic event which gets Scotland’s cause rolling again.

I sincerely hope Alba Party takes up this challenge. Otherwise, I have a very difficult decision to make between now and November.