Success breeds success
The arguments for #ScottishUDI
In the second of an occasional series of articles highlighting arguments in favour of the #ScottishUDI strategy, I want to set out some of the reasoning behind the idea of using a de facto referendum to generate a mandate for the Scottish Parliament to repossess legislative competence in matters relating to the constitution. This may be considered particularly apt at the moment as new British prime minister Andy Burnham accepts John Swinney’s invitation to humiliate him.
The independence movement needs a win. Success breeds success, and Scotland’s cause hasn’t had a success in a very long time. One reason for using a de facto referendum to generate that mandate is that a plebiscite on the powers of the Scottish Parliament will be a much easier win than a de facto referendum on independence. And win by a bigger margin.
Although the picture isn’t perfectly clear, it is probably fair to say that the public attitude to the Scottish Parliament is and has always been quite positive. There is more support for the Scottish Parliament having more powers than there is for independence.
Rather, Scotland is more divided on how the country should be governed now than it was in 1999. Then, in response to a question that SSA has asked every year since, 59% said they thought Scotland should have its own parliament within the framework of the UK, while just 27% backed leaving the UK (just 10% rejected the idea of Scotland having any kind of parliament of its own). Now, in our latest survey conducted last autumn, 47% support independence, compared with 41% who prefer a devolved parliament (and 9% who do not want a parliament at all).
It may also be fair to say that the United Kingdom Internal Market Act 2020 (UKIMA) with its threat to the devolved administrations, has hardened a defensive attitude to the Scottish Parliament. A clear majority of people want more powers for the Scottish Parliament.
The research found that 51.8% of Scots were in favour of more devolution, with 17.7% in favour of powers being taken away from Holyrood.
It is also worth noting that the pro-independence pairing of SNP and SGP has never won over 50% of the vote in any Scottish general election. Had any of those elections been a de facto referendum on independence, we would have lost. I’m well aware that this reasoning is flawed, as the outcomes might have been very different had the vote been on independence. Nonetheless, the contrast with a de facto referendum on more powers is striking.
Using the regional ballot in a Scottish general election to get a mandate for the Scottish Parliament to assert the power to legislate for a proper constitutional election would be as close as we’re ever likely to get to certain to give the independence movement the win it so desperately needs. And that win would stand us in good stead when it came to the confirmatory referendum that would restore Scotland’s independence.
There is a desperate need to generate some momentum.
Irrespective of what any of us think about the merits and demerits of the different 'pro-Independence' parties there is no doubt that the various on-going an unresolved scandals surrounding the SNP, the folding of the Alba Party and the failure of AtLS to gain any traction has been portrayed as setbacks for Scotland's Cause.
One thought:
As the word 'referendum' - de facto or non-prefixed - in the Scottish context has become very closely identified with a vote on constitutional arrangements it might well be best to omit this term altogether and adopt 'plebiscite' exclusively when describing a vote on extending the powers of the parliament (to include the exercise of Scottish self-determination)?
I agree totally with your last paragraph..makes sense and seems a good way to intellectually wrench us from the grip of our enemies both within and without our beloved Scotland.
Unfortunately being the blood and soil wretch I am ...I believe no foreign devious hostile english government will accept any vote by our people for freedom....so I would be standing at your back with a big hammer in my hand. To be used instantly the Scots realise they have ONCE AGAIN been betrayed...especially by our own home grown quislings who seem delighted to end up in a fur lined cape or a crap covered gong around their despicable necks. I watch them hugging each other and smirking when the foreign english 'award' them for their traitorous behaviour to their land of birth. I would suggest something else round those necks but the polis led by foreign english woman Farrell probably wouldn't let me.
However perhaps you will be able to make the Scots see sense and throw off the 'chains of colonisation.'.but ah'm holding ontae my hammer..
For OUR Scotland and her weans