Remember politics?

Photo by Element5 Digital on Unsplash

Browsing the media at the moment, one might be forgiven for supposing that nothing much was happening in the world other than some football tournament. Amidst this World Cup fever, you may have forgotten that voters go to the polls tomorrow (Thursday 18 June) in two quite significant by-elections—one in England and one here in Scotland.

The Makerfield by-election is noteworthy because the current favourite to win, British Labour’s Andy Burnham, is almost certain to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the role of party leader and, hence, the title of Prime Minister. That’s how the British political system works. A by-election result can effectively decide who holds the highest political office in the UK.

For all the hype, Burnham becoming PM is unlikely to make a lot of difference to the direction in which the UK is being dragged by Reform, British Labour’s main challenger in the Makerfield race. The area is a hotbed of support for Nigel Farage’s party, which almost swept the board in the Greater Manchester Council elections last year. Robert Kenyon’s chances of taking the seat for Reform UK may be spoilt by the presence of the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd. Whatever the outcome, it is now the far right which is dictating the political agenda in England. No matter who is leader, we won’t see British Labour moving to the left any time soon.

A change in the occupant of No. 10 Downing Street has no implications for Scotland’s cause. Andy Burnham will be no more impressed by the Scottish Parliament’s vote in favour of a new referendum than Starmer. If John Swinney opts to submit a supplication for a Section 30 order anew, he’ll get the same answer, perhaps delivered by a different lackey.

I suspect Swinney will choose to make a fresh ‘demand’ for a Section 30 order if only because it can be presented as him taking action, however pointless it may be. He is very good at looking busy while doing nothing of any consequence.

Here in Scotland, the Aberdeen South by-election is an early test of SNP support. If Richard Thomson wins, as the bookies predict, John Swinney will breathe a sigh of relief if he can take some time off from all the photo-ops the football provides. The SNP candidate’s nearest rival is Douglas Lumsden, currently a Tory list MSP. If he were to win, Unionist glee would be unbounded. But these days it would be foolish to discount the Reform UK candidate, Jo Hart. Turnout is likely to be low, and this tends to favour the more extreme parties, as their support is more motivated to vote than others.

The most interesting thing in the Aberdeen South by-election may be the contest for second place. If Reform beats the Tories into third place, the talk will all be of the threat posed by the far right.

Again, a win for the SNP will mean nothing for Scotland’s cause. We’ll still be looking at five more years in the doldrums. Swinney will claim a strengthened mandate as he pleads for permission to hold a referendum which is actually no more than a glorified opinion poll. His plea will be dismissed as readily by Andy Burnham as by any other British Prime Minister. So long as Scotland’s First Minister gives the British state a veto, the British state will use it.

Reading over what I’ve written here, it comes across as an effort to make the two by-elections seem interesting. It never stood a chance, did it?