It’s funny how you can be looking at something day in, and day out and not notice the wrongness of it until you are prompted to look again from a slightly different angle. If you spend any time at all on social media, as I do, you will be well accustomed to seeing posts in which someone declares how they intend to vote in the 2026 Scottish general election. Commonly, these declarations are made with the absolute certainty of a mind immovably made up. You may disagree with the choice made. But it is unlikely that you will have question the sense of making a choice.
This, at least, was my experience. Until today. When replying to a message from a friend on the subject of voting intentions, I was explaining that I hadn’t yet decided when it occurred to me that none of us should have made a firm decision on this. Those declaring that they had were being a bit silly.
As I write, there are 215 days until the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. Considering the rapidly shifting nature of events and developments in Scotland and beyond, it is difficult to predict with any certainty what circumstances might prevail two days hence, never mind more than 200 days away. We could be living in a very different world next week.
It could, of course, be argued that this is always true. It may have been Harold Wilson who first observed that a week is a long time in politics. It is certainly an observation which has been frequently made since his time. Change is happening constantly. What varies is the rate and scale of change. We seem to be traversing one of those periods of history during which change happens at discombobulating speed and on a scale which is unprecedented - at least in our experience.
I am approaching 75 years of age. I have lived through many spells when we seemed ‘on the verge’. I cannot in every case say what we thought we might be on the verge of. I just recall the sense of extreme precarity. I acknowledge that this may be entirely subjective on my part, but this time feels different. It’s almost as if we are not merely ‘on the verge’ but constantly toppling over it. Like that bit in the movie where having spent a considerable sum of money on the scene where the bus full of school children goes over the cliff into the lake, the director squeezes every cent of value out of it by repeating the scene seven times in succession from different camera angles.
In such circumstances, it cannot be sensible to decide today how you’ll vote 215 days from now. I could speculate about what might happen in the intervening period. But there would be neither end nor limit to such an exercise. Things are happening every day which would have been scoffed at mightily 215 days ago. The envelope of safe assumptions has been pushed well beyond what might previously have been considered its limit. We must venture deep into the realm of ridiculousness before we find that which can safely be discounted as impossible.
While blessedly unafflicted by religious faith, I’m not above borrowing a phrase or two from holy writ. The King James version of The Bible at Matthew 6:34 tells us:
Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.
Deciding how to vote in next year’s election is one context in which we can usefully deploy the phrase we have come to detest:
Now is not the time!
I have taken to the habit of caveating comments on voting intention at any upcoming election with "as things stand" then "this is what I'll do".
I am pretty certain that "this is what I'll do" is what I actually will do, given current and known circumstances.
In today's context that means waiting to see what the manifesto of the supposedly pro-Independence parties and candidates stand on with respect to the restoration of Scotland's full self-government.
And then, if they don't contain what I want them to, waiting again. Because unexpected things can always happen.
And, as either John Maynard Keynes or (fellow economist) Paul Samuelson might have said "when the facts change I change my mind".
I am sure that I will always vote for the return of Scotland's independent statehood. It's just that the way of indicating that preference might change.
So "as things stand, this is what I'll do" will do for me. For the time being at least.
Agree totally . There is no way to decide on voting intentions. I live in hope that the aliens who dumped swiney on us will come back for him. ( if smart they won't) I'm reminded of the smashed potato advert with the aliens in hysterics at the earthpeople who still smash their totties. When they see swiney as a 'leader ' they must be absolutely wetting themselves. I can just hear them..'did ye see they've got that looney swiney as their leader..ho ho ho!'
Glad you are not afflicted by religion..I was forced to go to sunday school at 5 and by the end of the service had decided I didn't believe in this guy jesus... ' him in his wee corner and me in mine'. ( holy song) and then a couple of years later I wanted the royal family gone....parents thought the goblins had visited and left me...but I knew I better.... Age is nothing.
I am not ready to cast my vote until the pencil is in my hand and hovering over the paper..you never know that spaceship could be about to land. Reading SD's account of voting intentions... I reckon he is as demented as the rest of us.... 'for the time being at least'
I have no problems wanting to go and trash Holyrood ( if the trains are running..you never know..) but lifting that pencil and making a mark.....and listening for the spaceship.....no way can anyone decide until they have finally ticked the box...( bu**er the've landed.)
For OUR Scotland and her confused weans.