The observation about social media rewarding simplicity over nuance is worth sitting with. What strikes me is the gap between the Alba polling data and the rhetoric about supermajorities. In electoral strategy, you can't will a coalition into existance through messaging alone when the underlying voter sentiment isn't tracking. The Curtice projections you cite put a hard number on that disconnect. I saw similar dynamics in the 2014 Quebec sovereignty debates where strategic voting theories fell apart once you modeled actual voter behavior patterns. The core issue is whether parliamentary arithmetic substitues for broader public mandate, and history suggests it doesn't hold under pressure. The fact that none of these parties have articulated a clear post-election independence mechanism makes the whole exercise feel more symbolic than operational.
The tension betwen detailed analysis and snappy soundbites is brutal. I've watched similiar dynamics in other movements where data-driven arguments just get drowned out by emotional appeals that feel more satisfying. What stands out here is the gap between needing a supermajority for theatrics versus actually having apath to independence. Reminds me of campaigns that optimize for winning symbolic victories but can't explain what happens the day after. At some point electoral arithmetic stops mattering if there's no actual implementation strategy beyond 'force an extraordinary election.'
Talking about opinion polls now as though not much can change in the next 5 (actually 4) months is the height of foolishness and indeed, historical ignorance and political naivety.
I seriously can't be bothered doing seat projections for those 2 polls to compare with the actual result. My bad. Anyone who comments on polls should at least have a four by two - or leave it to SGP, who does.
Labour completely reversed to SNP in 4 short months, who even in 4 short days gained even more on the regional vote - and hence got 16, count them, 16 list seats. Otherwise - there would not have been an Indy Ref in 2014.
Nobody was talking about opinion polls now as though not much can change. We can only sensibly discuss matters based on the information we have at any given time. It seems you would prefer to proceed based on whatever information we might have at any time in the future. Go ahead! You're on your own.
I just gave you a very clear historical example of the SNP completely reversing position on Labour in less than 5 months - but since it doesn't fit your "We're a' doomed" agenda, you ignore it with a feeble attempt at a puerile presumptive insult, instead of discussing it like a mature adult.
Only an idiot would generalise from a single "historical" example. Nobody has claimed that the polls CAN'T switch. Only that there is no REASON to suppose that they are going to on this occasion. For that to happen, something has to make them change. There is no REASON to think John Swinney has anything transformative in mind.
I commend your persistence, Peter, and hope at least some readers will take note of the points you make. I trust neither the SNP nor Alba to free Scotland from the foreign shackles we exist under nor to frame the democratic sovereign and caring country we badly need, but have not yet given up hope.
'..if Westminster refuses to play ball...' (ref Steve Arnott - max the Yes )
'fantasy politics and magical thinking' -(ref Peter A Bell)
While Hitler Mk2 ( 'I'm for peace'- ref D Trump ) threatens the rest of the world Scotland is in the middle of another presentation of 'Brigadoon' by the defenders of our country who are preparing to....
* polish their brogues
* brush doon their best tartan kilt
* wash their face
..oh and don't forget yer tartan kneepads....
Whit fur?
Well it's a long way fae Scotland tae Westminster crawling on yer knees tae beg permission from the foreign sh*te english fur a referendum AGAIN so we can vote for independence ..AGAIN.. that will be ignored and refused AGAIN...yep fantasy politics...nailed it once more Peter..(I've reserved a seat on the first rocket to Mars for you...)
Basically we say pretty please and the sh*te foreign english double up in laughter at those dumb jocks. That would be the Scots in case you don't recognise yerselves...
So on wi' the show... Brigadoon...the whirl o' the pipes ..the proud marching bands ...the swing o' the kilt...the nice wee Scots who welcome any thievin' sh*t into their country....aye right jimmy...close the f*ckin' border and threaten the sh*te foreign english wi mayhem....that should get a reaction...and FREEDOM.
For OOR Scotland and her waiting for freedom weans... minus the sh*t foreign english .
Producer.. o' Brigadoon by j. swiney
Director...any halfwit in Holyrood
Peasants in full hired tartan dress played by ...the Scots
The 'super majority' approach does not increase the popular demand for Independence. It does not increase votes for Independence. It cannibalises the existing votes. That is to say it merely shifts them around. It does not add to them.
There would be undoubted pleasure derived and enjoyed from denying parliamentary representation to explicitly British Unionist/Nationalist candidates.
However, schadenfreude alone does not provide the basis for claiming democratic legitimacy for declaring Independence when it does not have the unequivocal endorsement of the people.
The observation about social media rewarding simplicity over nuance is worth sitting with. What strikes me is the gap between the Alba polling data and the rhetoric about supermajorities. In electoral strategy, you can't will a coalition into existance through messaging alone when the underlying voter sentiment isn't tracking. The Curtice projections you cite put a hard number on that disconnect. I saw similar dynamics in the 2014 Quebec sovereignty debates where strategic voting theories fell apart once you modeled actual voter behavior patterns. The core issue is whether parliamentary arithmetic substitues for broader public mandate, and history suggests it doesn't hold under pressure. The fact that none of these parties have articulated a clear post-election independence mechanism makes the whole exercise feel more symbolic than operational.
I challenge you to find a space for such arguments on social media. ;)
lest we forget
https://www.traffic.gov.scot/gritter-tracker
The tension betwen detailed analysis and snappy soundbites is brutal. I've watched similiar dynamics in other movements where data-driven arguments just get drowned out by emotional appeals that feel more satisfying. What stands out here is the gap between needing a supermajority for theatrics versus actually having apath to independence. Reminds me of campaigns that optimize for winning symbolic victories but can't explain what happens the day after. At some point electoral arithmetic stops mattering if there's no actual implementation strategy beyond 'force an extraordinary election.'
Talking about opinion polls now as though not much can change in the next 5 (actually 4) months is the height of foolishness and indeed, historical ignorance and political naivety.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_Scottish_Parliament_election
Constituency:
Firm/Client Survey end date SNP Lab Con Lib Dem Others
TNS-BMRB/Herald 10 January 2011 33% 49% 9% 7% 2%
TNS-BMRB/STV 3 May 2011 45% 27% 15% 10%
2011 Scottish Parliament election 45.39% 31.69% 13.91% 7.93% 1.8%
Regional:
Firm/Client Survey end date SNP Lab Con Lib Dem Others
TNS-BMRB/Herald 10 January 2011 33% 47% 9% 7% 3% 2%
TNS-BMRB/STV 3 May 2011 38% 25% 16% 9% 8% 4%
2011 Scottish Parliament election 44.04% 26.31% 12.36% 5.2% 4.38%
I seriously can't be bothered doing seat projections for those 2 polls to compare with the actual result. My bad. Anyone who comments on polls should at least have a four by two - or leave it to SGP, who does.
Labour completely reversed to SNP in 4 short months, who even in 4 short days gained even more on the regional vote - and hence got 16, count them, 16 list seats. Otherwise - there would not have been an Indy Ref in 2014.
Nobody was talking about opinion polls now as though not much can change. We can only sensibly discuss matters based on the information we have at any given time. It seems you would prefer to proceed based on whatever information we might have at any time in the future. Go ahead! You're on your own.
I just gave you a very clear historical example of the SNP completely reversing position on Labour in less than 5 months - but since it doesn't fit your "We're a' doomed" agenda, you ignore it with a feeble attempt at a puerile presumptive insult, instead of discussing it like a mature adult.
So much for your New Year's Resolution!
Only an idiot would generalise from a single "historical" example. Nobody has claimed that the polls CAN'T switch. Only that there is no REASON to suppose that they are going to on this occasion. For that to happen, something has to make them change. There is no REASON to think John Swinney has anything transformative in mind.
Yours is a faith position. I don't do faith.
I commend your persistence, Peter, and hope at least some readers will take note of the points you make. I trust neither the SNP nor Alba to free Scotland from the foreign shackles we exist under nor to frame the democratic sovereign and caring country we badly need, but have not yet given up hope.
454358, Article read in full.
'..if Westminster refuses to play ball...' (ref Steve Arnott - max the Yes )
'fantasy politics and magical thinking' -(ref Peter A Bell)
While Hitler Mk2 ( 'I'm for peace'- ref D Trump ) threatens the rest of the world Scotland is in the middle of another presentation of 'Brigadoon' by the defenders of our country who are preparing to....
* polish their brogues
* brush doon their best tartan kilt
* wash their face
..oh and don't forget yer tartan kneepads....
Whit fur?
Well it's a long way fae Scotland tae Westminster crawling on yer knees tae beg permission from the foreign sh*te english fur a referendum AGAIN so we can vote for independence ..AGAIN.. that will be ignored and refused AGAIN...yep fantasy politics...nailed it once more Peter..(I've reserved a seat on the first rocket to Mars for you...)
Basically we say pretty please and the sh*te foreign english double up in laughter at those dumb jocks. That would be the Scots in case you don't recognise yerselves...
So on wi' the show... Brigadoon...the whirl o' the pipes ..the proud marching bands ...the swing o' the kilt...the nice wee Scots who welcome any thievin' sh*t into their country....aye right jimmy...close the f*ckin' border and threaten the sh*te foreign english wi mayhem....that should get a reaction...and FREEDOM.
For OOR Scotland and her waiting for freedom weans... minus the sh*t foreign english .
Producer.. o' Brigadoon by j. swiney
Director...any halfwit in Holyrood
Peasants in full hired tartan dress played by ...the Scots
The 'super majority' approach does not increase the popular demand for Independence. It does not increase votes for Independence. It cannibalises the existing votes. That is to say it merely shifts them around. It does not add to them.
There would be undoubted pleasure derived and enjoyed from denying parliamentary representation to explicitly British Unionist/Nationalist candidates.
However, schadenfreude alone does not provide the basis for claiming democratic legitimacy for declaring Independence when it does not have the unequivocal endorsement of the people.