Much happens! Nothing changes!
Douglas Ross is an idiot
Amidst all the turmoil sparked by Humza Yousaf ripping up the Bute House Agreement and sacking the Harvie/Slater creature, one thing is clear - Douglas Ross is a fucking idiot! Not that we were unaware of this. But it is remarkable that the man seems to feel the need to confirm his idiocy at every opportunity. And if there is no opportunity, he'll make one. Just as he has with his motion of no confidence in the First Minister.
Two things make Douglas Ross's motion the work of a top-rank numpty. The fact that it relates only to Humza Yousaf and not the entire Scottish Government. And the inclusion of the phrase highlighted in the following line taken from the text of the motion.
That the Parliament has no confidence in the First Minister, in light of his failures in government.
Had Ross wanted to strike a blow for the British Tories and the British Nationalist cause as well as against the SNP and Scotland's cause, he would have sought to bring down the SNP Scottish Government. Instead, he has opted to play the petty scalp-hunting game that the media laps up but which has absolutely nothing to do with good governance or effective opposition. It is political theatre and nothing more. Even if the no confidence motion is carried, the impact on the Scottish Government, the SNP and Yousaf himself lies somewhere in the range between minimal and negligible. Yousaf won't be required to resign. Only a vote of no confidence in the Scottish Government must precipitate the resignation of all Ministers, including the First Minister.
Had Ross intended simply to embarrass as much as possible the First Minister and his party then he would not have added that phrase "failures in government". Because to be reasonably sure of the motion being carried, it would need the support of the Scottish Greens. But the Scottish Greens were part of the government that the motion condemns. For the Scottish Greens, voting for the motion is like voting no confidence in themselves.
Douglas Ross has made his motion not about the Scottish Government in a way which can be effective but about the Scottish Government in a way that makes it significantly more likely that the motion will fail. Without that fatal phrase, it would have been easy for the Scottish Greens to support the motion. Instead, Ross has made it extremely difficult for them to do so. Like I say, the man is a fucking idiot!
There is much talk of the consequences for parliamentary arithmetic if the no confidence motion is carried. As ever, I am focused on the implications for Scotland's cause. Those implications are not good. Even in the rather unlikely event that Yousaf voluntarily resigns, either in response to the motion being carried or to preempt it, the SNP's ruling clique will simply replace him with another one of their own. Just as they contrived to have Yousaf replace Sturgeon. The hotly tipped candidate to continue the work of the continuity party leader is Ian Gray. That means their will be no change to the SNP's 'independence strategy' of deferring to Westminster in all things and at all times.
I read some commenters suggesting the current mêlée might provide an opening the remaining - but almost invisible - pro-independence SNP MSPs could exploit to force a rethink of the party's whole approach to the constitutional situation. But even if those pro-independence SNP MSPs were considering a rebellion, they'd take one look at the way dumb SNP loyalists have reacted to developments and quickly drop all thought of abstaining in the no confidence vote. So, that's probably not going to happen.
The two most likely outcomes are that Yousaf struggles on as head of a minority government with his extremely bitter former allies looking to stab him in the back or the front or anywhere they can. Alternatively, Yousaf might resign and be replaced with another adherent to the Sturgeon doctrine which puts Westminster at the centre of the constitutional issue where the people of Scotland belong. So, no change on the independence front.
As is so often the case in politics, there's a lot going on, but absolutely nothing changing. Douglas Ross remains a fucking idiot.