Although the SNP’s support largely remained the same, leading pollster Sir John Curtice said the results showed they would be the biggest party in Holyrood.
And that is why we cannot simply write off the SNP, as some would have us do. With all the usual caveats about polls - and especially a single poll - the scenario drawn by this one is among the more plausible speculations regarding the outcome of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. There is a faction within the independence movement that is fervently hoping the SNP gets soundly thrashed and utterly humiliated, if not completely destroyed. There are self-styled independence activists who are feverishly sticking hatpins in wax effigies of John Swinney wishing him and his colleagues in the SNP leadership every ill their imaginations can conjure. They want the SNP punished to the fullest extent of their bitter spite regardless of any consequences.
Now, it is easy to understand why people would want the SNP punished. It would be difficult to argue that the party leadership hasn't earned at least some of the less blood-curdling forms of retribution dreamed up by those who have come to hate the party with a vengeance. But there are two points which seem to elude those bent on revenge for what the SNP leadership has done to both their party and Scotland's cause. The first is that their antipathy towards the SNP is not shared by others. Or not shared to the extent that they like to imagine. The SNP has been and remains a massive force in Scotland's politics. As things stand, they are still going to be a significant presence after the 2026 election. We need to be realistic about such things.
The second thing is that the potential consequences of trying to electorally destroy the SNP are not such as can be disregarded be any sensible independence supporter. Here's another quote from the nation's favourite psephologist.
Even if the Tories were to join the other two sitting Unionist parties, they would still be two seats shy of having control of the chamber.
The emphasis is mine. Professor Curtice might have said only two seats shy of controlling the chamber. If the thought of a Unionist 'Grand Alliance' taking power doesn't send shivers up your spine then you should get your spine checked. And they are only two seats away, according to this poll. That's two seats before the vengeance-seekers really get going on their efforts to reduce the SNP's polling figures.
Being a pragmatist, I long since recognised that the SNP served two functions. It was the 'party of independence'. And it was the shield protecting us against that 'Grand Alliance' of contempt for Scotland. It is no longer possible to take seriously any claim that the SNP is the 'party of independence'. Not unless you're making your fat roll-ups with copies of The National. But we still need that shield to hold off the dreaded 'Grand Alliance' of parties with only malice in their hearts for Scotland. Remember how close we are to that being a real possibility. Which prompts the question, who will be our shield against doom if not the SNP?
Unless there is some tectonic event in Scotland's politics within the next few months, there is only the SNP. The next question would be, is your hatred of the SNP such that you'd be prepared to hand the Scottish Parliament back to the British parties whose loss of control was never part of the devolution plan?
That's a serious question. Because it's a serious dilemma for those of us who have lost all confidence in the SNP's ability or willingness to progress Scotland's cause. We know the SNP has ceased to be even a poor facsimile of a 'party of independence'. We would not be so foolish as to vote for them in the hope that they might actually do something about the constitutional issue. They have given us no reason to believe they will serve Scotland's cause any better going forward than they have for the last decade. But fearing the 'Grand British Nationalist Alliance', we may - depending on local conditions - feel obliged to keep the SNP in their role as a barrier between us and a frightful fate for Scotland.
How to resolve this dilemma? It seems to me there are a few options. (I hesitate to glorify them with the term 'possibilities') We could try to engineer one of those electoral miracles and elevate one of the other nominally pro-independence parties so that they could take over the role of shield against the British parties. Not impossible! But not a kick in the arse off it! (Sorry! I don't know the metric equivalent.)
The problem with this is that while another nominally pro-independence party might serve well enough as a Brit-stopper, there is no reason whatever to suppose any of them would serve any better than the SNP as the 'party of independence'. So, even if we managed to pull off this electoral miracle, we'd only have succeeded in shuffling the deckchairs. The good ship Scotland's cause would remain in the Doldrums, becalmed and slowly sinking.
The party that is going to get Scotland's cause moving again doesn't exist. So, before performing the miracle of making it the party of government, we'd have to work some similar magic to transform one or more of the nominally pro-independence parties into a genuine 'party of independence'. Of course, since the SNP is still this big presence in Scotland's politics, the optimum 'solution' would be to work this transformation on them. We then wouldn't need the electoral miracle to get them within reach of being the party of government. That's a miracle saved for another time.
It is at least theoretically possible for the electorate to force any party to rethink it offering. The 2011 election could be viewed as forcing Alex Salmond to secure that referendum. Force in the sense that he was obliged to deliver. There was no way of escaping it supposing he had wanted to. Which is one reason the referendum was as flawed as it undoubtedly was. To a significant degree, Salmond had to take what he could get.
If it is theoretically possible to effect a change of approach to an issue on any political party, it is not unreasonable to speculate about what might do the job. I am firmly persuaded that if Alba adopted the #ManifestoForIndependence, this would not only give them a big boost in the polls, it would also drop a wee hand grenade into the comfy bubble whaur bides the SNP leadership. It would surely embolden those still remaining members of the SNP in the hope of seeing their party through a very nasty case of leaderitis. We might even see a leaderectomy. (I'll stop that now.)
One thing is certain. If Scotland's cause is to progress, a genuinely pro-independence government and parliament are essential. The necessary implication of this being that we need something better than the nominally pro-independence parties that we have. At least one of them must start being a real 'party of independence'. And since we can't be 100% sure which one will trigger this transformation, we have to work on all of them. Not excluding the SNP!
Yes those that "I want independence for Scotland but I won't vote for the SNP" will allow the unionist party's into power in Holyrood. The unionists will turn Scotland into a version of England. Then we are done as they will try and make sure that independence for Scotland be made more impossible that it is now.
They will finish Westminsters job for them.
I've had this discussion before Peter on a number of threads. The SNP may not be the best route to independence, but at this current juncture it happens to be the only route. The SNP have taken a proverbial skelping at the Wastemonster election. I might have naively thought that that might have been the kick in the rear that the party needed to adopt a more credible push towards the end result that the party was initially created to do. Unfortunately the current output from the party HQ doesn't make me believe that they are as committed as those who actually elected each and every one of them. So far under Kid Starver we have seen the true colours of the Labour party. All those in Scotland who voted Labour and are set to lose their Winter Heating Allowance and reductions in their Universal Credit etc; hell effing mend you. You asked for it, and you damn well got it. Rest assured there will be more of the same to come. Scotland cannot afford to let the Unionist parties take the same grip in Holyrood as they have done in Engerland. If it does happen, I'm sure the Levelling Up department will ensure we become level with Engerland in terms of Prescription Charges, Bus Passes, Tuition Fees and much more. My hope is that the SNP retain their grip on power. It is by far the safest result for Scotland. This time around though without Salmond ensconced in Alba, I will certainly add them as my second vote, as I hope many others will do. Salmond was always a divisive figure for me and it would appear, many others. The Alba party will not be my first choice, (at least not yet) but they will hopefully provide a more sensible and coherent partner than Bitter Wee Harvie and his crowd of muppets. An electoral smack in the teeth may give the Greens some food for thought in terms of their policies and attitude. Early days yet my friend but I will continue to hope for change in all the areas I've addressed. Good luck with the new party. I am watching with interest. :)